You Shouldn’t Buy an iPad (Yet)

In her article, Why You Shouldn’t Buy an iPad (Yet), Gina Trapani writes:

Apple’s iPad arrives in stores tomorrow and reviewers agree that it’s a magic revolutionary new class of computer. But you shouldn’t buy one. Not yet, anyway.
Let’s break this down.
First-generation Apple products are for suckers. Only lemmings with no self-control and excessive disposable income buy first generation Apple products, especially in a new gadget category. When they do, they pay the double the price for immature hardware and software.

The 2nd generation of Apple products has never been discounted 50% less than previous models. Further, I can’t remember a single case where I sold an Apple computer, iPod, or iPhone for less than 75% of the purchase price.

Remember the iPhone? It debuted in 2007 with two models priced at $500 and $600, with no native applications–only mobile Web apps, few of which came in an iPhone-friendly format at launch because it was such a new device. A year later, in 2008, a faster iPhone 3G went on sale for $300 less, with native application support.

The iPhone 3G is carrier subsidized and requires a contract. The original iPhone was not subsidized. The 3G costs less initially, but has a 2-year AT&T contract attached. It appears Gina has an anti-Apple grudge, as witnessed by her inability to compare an Apple to an Apple!

I did buy an original iPhone. I paid $300 on Sep 12, 2007, unsubsidized and contract free. Even today, the only unsubsidized contract free competitor to the iPhone is the Google Nexus One, priced at $529.

When 3rd party apps became available for the iPhone, they were not, as Gina implies, limited to use with the newer iPhones. All iPhone owners gained the capability via a free software update. The same will hold true for the iPad.

Despite the initial lack of third party native apps, the included apps on the first iPhone were excellent. Google Maps was available for many phones, but until the iPhone, it was barely usable. The email app was far better than any other phone, except perhaps the Blackberry. I vividly recall an airline stewardess blocking the aisle as a happy iPhone owner showed off the photo app with pinch to zoom. The web browser was so good that the mobile web finally got off the ground.

But the iPhone succeeded so dramatically because of its ability to share information with other computers. Even non-techies could sync music, movies, photos, and calendars. We all know someone who painstakingly entered their contacts from their old mobile into their new one by hand. The iPhone heralded a new era in which everyone could install iTunes and share data between their personal computer and their phone. Better still, the data stayed in sync.

I sold that first iPhone in July of 2009 for $225. The total cost to own that first generation iPhone for 22 months was $75. When I sold my iPhone 3G, I turned a $75 profit. When I upgrade to the next iPhone, I expect to make money on my iPhone 3GS.

Truly, first-generation Apple products are for suckers.

Don’t be the guy who bought the first-gen iPad when Apple slashes the 2011 iPad price in half.

Apple will not be dropping the price of the iPad 2.0 in half. It’s already priced very competitively. Odds are extremely low that they’ll drop the iPad price at all. Based on the history of iPhones and iPods, it’s almost certain that the 2nd iPad will cost almost exactly the same as the first.

Next year’s iPad will be faster, cheaper, less buggy, and have better apps and worthy competitors. Let all the deep-pocketed Jobs apostles be your canaries into the iPad coalmine. Give developers time to fix their apps to work well on the iPad. Give Apple a year to lower prices on faster hardware and fill in all the gaping feature holes. (Remember how long early iPhone owners lived without copy and paste?)

Yeah, don’t be that guy! After a year, you might want to sell your iPad 1.0 and buy a new one, resulting in a TCO of $50-100 to own the iPad for a year. During that time, you’ll have to put up with people curiously watching you use it, with mouths agape. You’ll have to endure dozens upon dozens of conversations about the iPad with friends, family, and strangers. All because you are one of the first to own the hottest new computing device on the planet. Don’t be that guy!

While the Apple faithful could argue that the iPad’s application platform matured during three years of deployment on the iPhone and iPod touch, keep in mind: iPad developers have been working on their software not with an actual iPad, but with a software simulator. You can’t truly see how your application works in a simulator. The great iPad apps haven’t grown up yet–and most of them haven’t even been born.

What percentage of iPad developers were already iPhone developers?

If you’re interested in the iPad because of what it will be someday, put your $500 in an interest-bearing savings account between now and when the device (or a competitor’s) realizes that potential. You’ll get a better product for less dough.

translation: $2.50 is more fun than owning an iPad for a year.

New gadgets create friction in your life.

translation: my gadget buying advice cannot be trusted.

In one year the iPad will be a much better device, and an entire ecosystem of competitors will offer you more choice and features for your money. When the heat of the iPad launchlust cools, and you’ve still got your 500 bucks in the bank, you’ll be glad you stayed out of the Apple store this weekend.

The iPhone had exactly zero competitors one year after its launch. After two years, the iPhone gained its first credible competitor, and now there are three. Something about Gina’s arguments smells a little fishy. Red herring, to be precise.

I won’t be at the Apple Store this weekend, but I will be buying an iPad. I’m waiting for the 3G version.

PSA: Don’t overpay for cables

overpriced HDMI cables
Don't Buy Expensive Cables

Before buying HDMI or other cables locally, check the price on them at monoprice.com or Amazon.com. Both will have low prices. I buy almost exclusively at monoprice because of their cheap USPS shipping. For example, a 6′ HDMI cable is $4. A toslink female to mini male adapter is $0.66 (use this to connect a Mac to your receiver via optical).

touchscreen comparison

Have you had the chance to play with a Blackberry Storm? Or a Palm Pre? Did you get the feeling that the touch screen, the primary input device, just didn’t feel as good as the iPhone? I’m not talking about the ignored taps that the Google Android suffers from, but that, “darn, I’m sure I tapped the right spot, but I sure didn’t get what I wanted” feeling. It turns out there’s a quantifiable reason the iPhone touch screen seems to work better.

TV makes you…

TV doesn’t just make you stupid and fat, it also makes you obedient:

…the manipulative power of television further increases people’s willingness to obey. – Fake TV Game Show ‘Tortures’ Man

Even the Iranian regime is willing to play Hollywood movies to entice its citizens to stay home and watch TV.

It makes me wonder what we’ll be discovering and saying about the internet in the next couple decades.

lay down your card, walk away, and you won’t get hurt

It’s Banks vs. Families, Who Will Come Out on Top?

The short version is that I studied the economics of the middle class and I began to see that credit products were becoming increasingly dangerous. Families didn’t know how much they were spending on credit and comparison among the products was practically impossible…
….
The idea behind the current model is, “I will hold something shiny in front of your eye, 3.9% financing, and the way I’m going to make money is on tricks and traps that I’ve buried in the fine print: $29 there, $49 there, triple interest rate, double cycle billing, over and over and over … .”

…one of the issuers took me aside and said, “We get that our business model is unsustainable over the long haul, but no one of us can jump first.” On the plane home from the meeting with the issuer I realized how broken the market is….

Is a sin tax the best tax?

I think Christine Gregoire’s sin tax is a mediocre approach to an excellent idea. In addition to taxing poor consumption, the tax plan should also create incentives for healthy foods. With that in mind, I present the Washington State Health Improvement Tax.

Rather than a flat tax on products that are ‘sin’ items, tax products based on the level of Bad Things[*] in them. For example, candy and gum would be taxed on the grams of sugar included per serving. Cigarettes would be taxed on the levels of tar and nicotine. The tax would discourage ‘more sinful’ items because of increased cost, and it creates a market incentive for manufacturers to create healthier products.

It’s illogical to tax sugar-free gums that prevent tooth decay (a health benefit) the same as sugar rich ones that contribute to decay and diabetes. Low sugar gums should be taxed less, giving them an market advantage. Cigarettes with lower levels of tar and nicotine would be taxed less, encouraging smokers towards cigarettes that are less addictive and toxic. Fat, juicy premium steaks would be taxed more than lean cuts. Milk with growth hormones would cost more, making organic milk more cost competitive.

* Bad Things is defined as FDA regulated (food) items consumed by humans that cause poor health. The list should include, but not be limited to: Nicotine, saturated fats, trans fats, sugar, high fructose corn syrup, BGH, high levels of sodium, e coli, etc.

The tax scale should be progressive, so that the most unhealthy products are taxed the most. Dieticians and nutritionists should determine the level of ill health each ingredient causes and the tax implemented based on that.

For example, every gram of sugar above 10 per serving is taxed at the rate of $0.01 per gram. Every gram of saturated fat above 1 is taxed at the rate of $0.10 per gram. Each mg of sodium above 250 per serving would cost $0.01. Under this scale, a 2 oz. Snickers bar with 28g of sugar ($0.18) and 4g of saturated fat ($0.30) would cost an extra $0.48. A slice of Costco chocolate cake would cost an extra $0.20. A bag of Nacho Cheese Doritos would cost $0.80 more.

To make compliance easier, charge the tax at the wholesale level for prepackaged foods. Prepared foods would have to be taxed at retail.

An optional nicety would be providing incentives to encourage merchants to include nutrition summaries on checkout receipts, as well as how much they contributed to the WS-HIT by making unhealthy choices.

Piggyback the WS-HIT tax with an excess packaging tax that taxes products with high levels of waste packaging. Rather than a $0.01 per ounce tax on bottled water, make the tax progressive so that it encourages consumers to purchase products with less packaging. Christine’s tax does not encourage someone to purchase a gallon jug of water versus 8-8oz bottles. The 8-pack has significantly more packing waste and should be taxed more. The large bottles that the Culligan man delivers are reused and should not be taxed at all.

That’s a tax proposal I’d vote for. Would you?

Walking desk – improved

After 50 hours of walking at my desk, a few shortcomings compelled me to action. Most of the treadmill surface was under the desk and not available for walking, forcing a shortened stride. It was also unsuitable for jogging or running. We left the treadmill on sliders, so it could be slid out for running. The most annoying problem was not being able to use the controls while standing on the treadmill.

On Saturday I did a little measuring and planning, and then cut out a 11″ x 32″ rectangle for the treadmills console to protrude through. I positioned the cutout 8″ from the front of the desk, leaving exactly enough space behind the console for my iMac to perch on. Then I slid the desk over the control unit and moved the desk surface up.

After everything was in position, I found two problems. The iMac fit but there wasn’t enough space between its chin and the back of the treadmill console to tilt. The solution was cutting a 1.5″ x 14″ notch at the rear (the part I stand in front of) of the desk cutout. That allowed the treadmill to move forward 1.5″ and now I can tilt the iMac.

The other problem was the shelf. With the initial cut, it didn’t fit. Anywhere. After adding the notch and moving the treadmill forward, it was mountable as can be seen. The ideal mounting distance from the front edge of the desk to the cutout is 12.5″. Everything fits perfectly.

I have used this new configuration for 10 hours now. I would like a little more desk available for my forearms to rest on, and I need to raise the desk surface. When I last raised it, I forgot to factor in the incline of the treadmill. Without intent, I created an adjustable height walking desk!