Mobile mapping isn’t good enough

Today I confronted a limitation of Google Maps. I’m in Buena Park and I need to be in downtown LA around 8AM. Last night, I consulted Google Maps on my iPhone for planning purposes. It answered 31 minutes. I also checked in a browser on my laptop, in case a feature existed that would let me choose a departure or arrival time that accounted for Monday morning’s typical traffic. There is no such feature.

Because of LA’s infamous traffic, I gave us 2 hours to assure we arrived on time. I also consulted Google Maps at 6:00AM when we departed. It offered up 38 min with traffic accounted for. I checked again after arrival and Google Maps predicts 55 minutes. The actual time: 77 minutes.

Perhaps the Google Maps time estimates are typically reasonable in typical cases and LA traffic is an edge case that is poorly handled (as I learned several times in the past week). However, I think this is a limitation of how Google calculates traffic times. It only accounts for traffic as it is at this moment. It doesn’t account for the typical traffic patterns that predictably recur on given days of the week.

This is where other competitors such as Waze and hopefully the new iOS maps app can offer a significant advantage by mining crowd sourced data to make much better predictions. This is almost certainly something we’ll see in a future version of Google Maps.

Microsoft Introduces a Challenger to the iPad

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/06/19/technology/microsoft-unveils-a-tablet-to-challenge-the-ipad.html

Another quarter, another iPad competitor. But the headline is misleading. I watched the announcement. Microsoft didn’t introduce anything. They merely announced the Surface. This one had better be good, Microsoft is running out of marketable words to name their tablet attempts.

The keyboard idea is clever. It’s original. It might even work. It will take up less space than my iPad plus bluetooth keyboard. But is it better?

Ballmer has been watching Apple product introductions. He was trying hard to channel Steve Jobs. The hushed invites. The buildup music. The decor of the stage and slides. The introduction and invites. The structure of the presentation. The lack of PowerPoint looking slides. The Jonny Ive inspired “design” video. Microsoft is trying really hard to be like Apple.

They talked about the Surface and the ability to do all our Windows tasks on it. But they didn’t actually demonstrate the tablet doing any of them. Lots of talking and hand waving. Here’s the NetFlix screen, here’s the, oops, hang on while I grab another tablet. What? A crash during the announcement? That’s not the part of Windows we want you to bring to the mobile computing world Microsoft. Sad, sad, sad.

They let journalists touch them afterwards. For 90 seconds. With the power turned off. No typing on the vaunted keyboard. If these products worked even modestly well, you can bet they’d have been showing them off, like Apple did at the iPad announcement.

The announcement reeked of desperation. They announced a product so buggy it can’t survive a live demo. It may ship in the 3rd quarter, but Microsoft isn’t known for nailing their ship dates. There’s no pricing, likely because they’re having trouble sourcing components in quantity, because a certain dominant tablet maker owns the tooling and factories that create all the hi-res tablet displays. They have zero third party apps optimized for a tablet, and little enthusiasm from mobile developers. They are paying developers of popular 3rd party apps to port them to Windows Phone 7.

The saddest part of all this is the powerlessness at Microsoft. Back in the 90’s, I recall Microsoft product announcements instilling a sense of doom in anyone competing in a market. Competitors scurried. Projects and sometimes products were cancelled at the mere announcement of a Microsoft initiative, because competing with Microsoft was certain death. Now Microsoft makes an announcement and it’s just sad. Memories of greatness are replaced with memories of PlaysForSure and Zune trying to compete with the iPod. Then the Danger fiasco, the Kin disaster, and the underwhelming Lumia trying to complete with the iPhone. Then there’s the list of Windows powered tablet flops, crowned by the HP Slate. It’s just sad.

What I find most telling is that Microsoft and Google have both publicly confessed that Apple’s integrated approach is best. The modular solutions they previously championed (hardware from them, software from us) are not good enough. Google bought Motorola and will soon announce its own hardware, and now Microsoft has announced their own.

I think it’s premature to declare the Surface an iPad challenger. But one thing is for sure, it’s going to get even tougher for HTC, Samsung, and LG to complete in the mobile computing race.

Lucas is growing up

Today we rode our bikes to school. This was the first time this (calendar) year, and the weather made riding irresistible.

Lucas decided he was going to ride his new big bike (16″ wheels) instead of the Trail-A-Bike with me. We left a little early, just in case. We didn’t need to. Not only did Lucas keep up just fine, but Kayla couldn’t catch him. One whiff of her catching up and off he zoomed. After riding back home (2 mile round trip), we had to travel 8 blocks out of our way, because it has been too long since we biked past the church.

Two weeks ago, he picked out his own books from the library, and is able to read half of them. He starts kindergarten in the fall. He is more than ready.

Flashback and Mac OS X security

I’ve had several people inquire about the security of their Mac, particularly since the media began exploiting the Flashback trojan with sensational titles and coverage that I refuse to link to. If you want a good summary of the Flashback trojan, Macworld has an excellent writeup: What you need to know about the Flashback trojan. As for what you should do, read on.

We need to remember that absolute security is impossible to attain. Safety and security are more accurately described in degrees. What we mac users are accustomed to is a greater degree of security than other PC users. So long as we employ a bit of caution when downloading, we can surf the big bad internet with very little concern.

That’s not so say we’ve had absolutely nothing to worry about. Every year, there’s been an exploit or two and the page view generators declare that “The Mac is no longer secure.” Never mind that no platform is secure. Such facts do not generate page views. Here in reality, we Mac users have seen three primary vectors of security exploits on the Mac platform: QuickTime, Flash, and Java.

  • QuickTime: There have been quite a few QuickTime exploits, often as the underlying open source applications discover and patch exploits. Apple has been pretty good about getting these patches applied and pushed out to users quickly. Software Update is easy to use so most users see and install these updates.
  • Flash: Flash is the gift (to those with malicious intent) that keeps on giving. For a while, it seemed that Flash Player needed to be updated every week to remain secure, where by secure we meant it had no known vulnerabilities. A few years back, I realized that nothing I cared about required Flash, so I manually deinstalled it. John Gruber has a few tips for going Flash free. The benefits I noticed from disabling Flash were the disappearance of animated ads, faster page loads, greater battery life, and a cooler laptop. I was pleased when Apple shipped Lion without Flash and Java. With Flash use on the decline, the internet is already a better place.
  • Java: For the same reason that Java is popular in enterprises (write once, run anywhere), Java is popular with malware authors. Apple has a history of slow Java updates which you can read about at Macintouch. The short version is that just like Flash, Java updates on the Mac require cooperation with a third party (Oracle, and previously Sun). That often delays the release of new features as well as security fixes for Java on the Mac platform.

The only web site I use that utilizes Java is one bank, and it uses Java only for its online check deposit feature. Since I rarely use that feature (there’s an App for that), and having Java enabled poses real security risks, I have little reason to have Java enabled in Safari. Apple has made it very easy to disable Java: Safari -> Preferences -> Security -> Enable Java and click that checkbox off. I recommend that everybody does the same. It is comparably easy to disable Flash and Java in FireFox, Chrome, and Opera. Doing so inoculates you from nearly all internet nasties.

In summary, Mac users can continue to eschew antivirus software and still remain reasonably secure, so long as we employ three basic precautions: apply security patches that Apple releases, disable Flash, and disable Java. This is the way it has been for years. The thing that has changed the most regarding Mac security is that now it’s easier than ever to live without Flash and Java.

ZFS: Z pretty File System

This week I had two disks fail. The first was the cheapest to fix, as it was in my 27″ iMac. I took the entire machine to the Apple Store and picked it up the next day. The failed disk was covered under AppleCare, restoring my data from Time Machine backups was effortless, and my total cost was $4 in gas and 1 hour of time.

The other failed disk was in my file server. The server had a mirrored pair of 1.5TB disks and a mirrored pair of 1.0TB disks. One of the latter exhibited pre-fail symptoms so I ordered a pair of 3TB disks to replace both pairs.

I removed one disk from each existing pair, inserted my new disks, created the new zpool, and then remembered why I like ZFS so much. Here are the commands required to initialize the new disks and copy everything to the new array:

zpool create zmirror3 mirror ada1 ada2
zfs snapshot -r tank@now
zfs send -Rv tank@now | zfs receive -Fvu zmirror3

That’s it. There’s a little housekeeping, like setting ‘zfs set mountpoint=none’ to prevent conflicts and cleaning up the snapshots, but that’s really it. By using ‘zfs send -R’, all the zfs pool and volume meta data gets transferred too. It seems too good to be true. Below are the verbose messages that are enabled with the -v flags included above.


receiving full stream of tank@now into zmirror3@now
receiving full stream of tank/root@now into zmirror3/root@now
received 1.31GB stream in 20 seconds (67.2MB/sec)
receiving full stream of tank/usr@now into zmirror3/usr@now
received 1007GB stream in 8625 seconds (120MB/sec)
receiving full stream of tank/snapshots@now into zmirror3/snapshots@now
received 456GB stream in 7487 seconds (62.4MB/sec)
receiving full stream of tank/swap@now into zmirror3/swap@now
received 34.6MB stream in 4 seconds (8.66MB/sec)
receiving full stream of tank/var@now into zmirror3/var@now
received 1.10GB stream in 34 seconds (33.2MB/sec)
storage#

How much do you need to retire?

Here is a simple paradigm (from a comment BenE posted) for quantifying how much a person needs to retire successfully*:

Divide your life into three thirty year periods. During our first 30 years, we have limited means for savings. During the next 30 years, we work and save. We spend the last 30 years retired, spending our savings.

To spend as much in retirement as we did during our working years, we must save half of our income during our 30 working years so that we may spend that half during our 30 years of retirement.

Read that again. Pause and reflect on that.

Afterword

There’s plenty of factors that influence how much one must save. This paradigm excludes them so that the raw scale of savings can be easily grasped. Some of the most notable factors that can influence how much it is necessary to save include:

  • Start saving early
  • Postpone retirement
  • Social Security income
  • drastic reductions in living standards
  • Be born to rich parents/win lottery
  • Die early
  • Retire at the beginning of a long bull market.

* Successful retirement is defined as not outliving ones nest egg, or as not having to eat Alpo in ones golden years (William Bernstein).