In her article, Why You Shouldn’t Buy an iPad (Yet), Gina Trapani writes:
Apple’s iPad arrives in stores tomorrow and reviewers agree that it’s a magic revolutionary new class of computer. But you shouldn’t buy one. Not yet, anyway.
Let’s break this down.
First-generation Apple products are for suckers. Only lemmings with no self-control and excessive disposable income buy first generation Apple products, especially in a new gadget category. When they do, they pay the double the price for immature hardware and software.
The 2nd generation of Apple products has never been discounted 50% less than previous models. Further, I can’t remember a single case where I sold an Apple computer, iPod, or iPhone for less than 75% of the purchase price.
Remember the iPhone? It debuted in 2007 with two models priced at $500 and $600, with no native applications–only mobile Web apps, few of which came in an iPhone-friendly format at launch because it was such a new device. A year later, in 2008, a faster iPhone 3G went on sale for $300 less, with native application support.
The iPhone 3G is carrier subsidized and requires a contract. The original iPhone was not subsidized. The 3G costs less initially, but has a 2-year AT&T contract attached. It appears Gina has an anti-Apple grudge, as witnessed by her inability to compare an Apple to an Apple!
I did buy an original iPhone. I paid $300 on Sep 12, 2007, unsubsidized and contract free. Even today, the only unsubsidized contract free competitor to the iPhone is the Google Nexus One, priced at $529.
When 3rd party apps became available for the iPhone, they were not, as Gina implies, limited to use with the newer iPhones. All iPhone owners gained the capability via a free software update. The same will hold true for the iPad.
Despite the initial lack of third party native apps, the included apps on the first iPhone were excellent. Google Maps was available for many phones, but until the iPhone, it was barely usable. The email app was far better than any other phone, except perhaps the Blackberry. I vividly recall an airline stewardess blocking the aisle as a happy iPhone owner showed off the photo app with pinch to zoom. The web browser was so good that the mobile web finally got off the ground.
But the iPhone succeeded so dramatically because of its ability to share information with other computers. Even non-techies could sync music, movies, photos, and calendars. We all know someone who painstakingly entered their contacts from their old mobile into their new one by hand. The iPhone heralded a new era in which everyone could install iTunes and share data between their personal computer and their phone. Better still, the data stayed in sync.
I sold that first iPhone in July of 2009 for $225. The total cost to own that first generation iPhone for 22 months was $75. When I sold my iPhone 3G, I turned a $75 profit. When I upgrade to the next iPhone, I expect to make money on my iPhone 3GS.
Truly, first-generation Apple products are for suckers.
Don’t be the guy who bought the first-gen iPad when Apple slashes the 2011 iPad price in half.
Apple will not be dropping the price of the iPad 2.0 in half. It’s already priced very competitively. Odds are extremely low that they’ll drop the iPad price at all. Based on the history of iPhones and iPods, it’s almost certain that the 2nd iPad will cost almost exactly the same as the first.
Next year’s iPad will be faster, cheaper, less buggy, and have better apps and worthy competitors. Let all the deep-pocketed Jobs apostles be your canaries into the iPad coalmine. Give developers time to fix their apps to work well on the iPad. Give Apple a year to lower prices on faster hardware and fill in all the gaping feature holes. (Remember how long early iPhone owners lived without copy and paste?)
Yeah, don’t be that guy! After a year, you might want to sell your iPad 1.0 and buy a new one, resulting in a TCO of $50-100 to own the iPad for a year. During that time, you’ll have to put up with people curiously watching you use it, with mouths agape. You’ll have to endure dozens upon dozens of conversations about the iPad with friends, family, and strangers. All because you are one of the first to own the hottest new computing device on the planet. Don’t be that guy!
While the Apple faithful could argue that the iPad’s application platform matured during three years of deployment on the iPhone and iPod touch, keep in mind: iPad developers have been working on their software not with an actual iPad, but with a software simulator. You can’t truly see how your application works in a simulator. The great iPad apps haven’t grown up yet–and most of them haven’t even been born.
What percentage of iPad developers were already iPhone developers?
If you’re interested in the iPad because of what it will be someday, put your $500 in an interest-bearing savings account between now and when the device (or a competitor’s) realizes that potential. You’ll get a better product for less dough.
translation: $2.50 is more fun than owning an iPad for a year.
New gadgets create friction in your life.
translation: my gadget buying advice cannot be trusted.
In one year the iPad will be a much better device, and an entire ecosystem of competitors will offer you more choice and features for your money. When the heat of the iPad launchlust cools, and you’ve still got your 500 bucks in the bank, you’ll be glad you stayed out of the Apple store this weekend.
The iPhone had exactly zero competitors one year after its launch. After two years, the iPhone gained its first credible competitor, and now there are three. Something about Gina’s arguments smells a little fishy. Red herring, to be precise.
I won’t be at the Apple Store this weekend, but I will be buying an iPad. I’m waiting for the 3G version.
