On Sunday I gained 7,000 vertical feet on a 14 mile climb of Whitehorse Mountain. Thursday I gained another 1,000 feet on a 20 mile bike ride. Saturday (today) I am climbing Mt. Hood. It must be summer in Seattle.
Zune HD, as good as last years iPod
Microsoft’s Zune sales for 2008 show a 54% year over year decline. In other words, after a dismal start, Zune sales fell off a cliff. The decline in revenue is partially explained by heavily discounted Zunes. I’m talking about the, “Hey buddy, here’s $20 if you take this Zune” kind of discounts.
Today Microsoft officially announced the Zune HD, due out this fall. Microsoft is famous for entering markets with terrible products, and then improving on them until they end up with something good enough to compete in the marketplace. The Zune HD will be Microsoft’s third attempt in the MP3/portable music player market.
I hereby predict that the Zune HD will not be “good enough.” I further predict it will achieve results in the market quite similar to Plays 4 Sure devices and the existing Zune: dismal.
When used in public, the Zune is a device that gets you sympathetic looks, “aw, you asked for an iPod and got that.” The Zune has one ‘advantage’ over the iPod, its subscription model. It’s too bad that the vast majority of consumers have pulled out their wallets and voted for the $0.99 per song model. The market share Microsoft “gained” with the Zune came at the expense of their Plays 4 Sure partners, who offered that same subscription model.
By the time the Zune HD arrives, Apple will have released updated models of the iPhone and iPod Touch. The killer feature of the iPhone/iPod Touch will have added another 10,000 apps to its portfolio. The Zune HD won’t be eating dust in November. The iPod Touch is so far ahead that the dust has settled before the Zune HD arrived on the track.
Why Spending Cuts Aren’t The Answer
…
Although it is extremely hard to cut existing programs, it is easier to avoid launching new ones. But much of the new spending proposed by the president is for public investments with high rates of return. Failure to make these investments will actually make us poorer. For instance, if the government borrowed a trillion dollars at 4 percent and invested the money in projects with an annual return of 7 percent, we’d actually be richer each year by $30 billion than if we hadn’t made those investments. And because investment in the public sphere has been neglected for decades, there are thousands of shovel-ready projects with extremely high rates of return. — Robert Frank
Thank you Robert, for helping me see the silver lining in that $700b stimulus package.
car cost per mile
While car shopping, I built a spreadsheet of vehicle costs. Here is a graphic presentation of that data. Costs are based on Consumer Reports data and 12,000 miles per year.
The cost per mile is nearly identical between the family sedans. That is largely because the largest cost (40%) of car ownership is depreciation.
My 09 Fusion V6 with everything except AWD costs are lower because I paid cash (no interest) and paid $10k less than retail. I could have gotten the same low cost per mile on a Jetta TDI, but it would have been a 2006.
Nobody was offering deals on the Prius in December ’08/Jan ’09. In most cases, dealers were charging above retail. Now I’m hearing of people getting $5k discounts on them right now. A recent news article was titled, Hybrid sales go from 60 to 0 at breakneck speed. With the tax benefits, available discounts, and low cost of ownership, the Prius might be worth considering right now.
ski trip
On Tuesday, reports of a foot of fresh snow were heard in Seattle. Good news, to be sure, but not compelling. By Wednesday, another foot had fallen and snow was predicted through the night on Wednesday. Jen rented us skis. The snow and was still falling heavily on Thursday morning.
Even before we started climbing up the pass, the snow was falling like nothing I’ve ever seen. I grew up in Northern Michigan, in the heart of the snowbelt, where words like lake-effect and whiteout are common. Michigan has 4 of the top 15 snowiest cities in the lower 48.* I’ve seen a lot of snow but I can’t ever recall seeing snowflakes 3″ wide. They accumulate so fast they had been closing the pass daily for avalanche control.
This is also the fist time I’ve been skiing in bounds, on the runs, in snow above my knees, and occasionally up to my waist. On the runs! Snow so deep it begged the little boy in me to get a good run and cannonball into it. Snow so deep that when Jen fell in, all I could see was her hat. Snow so deep that the momentum lost by carving a single turn stopped me dead in my tracks.
What a day.
thrill issues
Dude. Dude. Focus Dude. Dude. Oh, he lives! Hey Dude!
…what happened?
Aw, saw the whole thing Dude. First you were like whoa (excited), then you were like woah (surprised), and then you were like woah (going limp).
…what are you talking about?
You! Mini-man, takin on the jellies, you got serious thrill issues Dude. Awesome.
AT&T account secret
I have a mobile phone number based in Michigan. I live in Seattle. I have a Seattle mobile as well. I wanted to merge them both onto a single AT&T Family Plan account. Quite a few AT&T reps told me it couldn’t be done without changing my numbers to both be in the same “business area.”
I wanted to keep both existing numbers. So I persisted. The magic incantation is “NBI account.” Tell the first AT&T rep you speak with you want to transfer a line to an account. Or activate a new line, or whatever you need to do for your 2nd line. When you get to someone that is supposed to be able to help, ask if they are authorized to do NBI accounts. If not, ask for someone who is. If they don’t know what that is, hang up and try again.
I didn’t get anyone helpful through AT&T phone support. But at my local AT&T store, the manager exclusively has NBI account access. He set me up with a NBI account, dropped both lines into it, and put them on the family plan. I have an AT&T Family Plan with two lines, one in Michigan and one in Washington.
the most numeric time of the year
1120S, 940, 940 Schedule A, 941, Schedule K-1, Form 1096, W-2, W-3, 1040.
a non-obvious reason for living in more Arctic climes
#1. Genetic defects.
About 10 years ago I had a tonsil infection that required removing them. Since I was already an adult, this was uncommon enough that my insurance company required me to get a 2nd and 3rd opinion. Both ear-nose-throat specialists concurred and my tonsils were removed. Both specialists noted that I have a deviated septum that could be ‘repaired.’
I had lived 25 years without knowing it, but it explained a few things. I breathe much better in cold weather. The colder the better. The cold air contracts the membranes in the sinuses allowing me to breathe easier. The cold air helps the sinuses drain better and I get fewer sinus infections in the winter. The cold morning air also helps clear out my sinuses when I have a sinus infection. Like it did this morning on my ride in.
I can’t stand being around smokers. It’s not the smoking I abhor, if you wish to take yourself out of the gene pool early, more power to you. It’s having plugged up sinuses for 12 hours that I object to, simply because I was near you.
My body adapted. I breathe through my mouth and nose at the same time when a canal is blocked. Even a slight reduction in my ‘normal’ breathing necessitates this and I do it without thinking about it. This is more pronounced when my body is working, such as during this mornings ride. After 1/2 hour of riding, the canals were wide open and fully cleared.
I can breathe freely. (for now)
I can do 4
Which is still below the level of the average athlete. Embarrassingly, I was at 1 just last week.